Ukraine: Emerging as Regional ENP Leader

High level EU officials paid an official visit to neighboring Ukraine for the EU-Ukraine Summit last Friday, 14 September. The delegation included the European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso and EU's top diplomat, Javier Solana. The mere fact that these two EU leaders visited Kiev is pretty important both for Ukraine and Moldova. Apparently, Ukraine emerges as a regional leader in EU enlargement debate and negotiations, and Moldova is right in between the two sides.

Ukraine is one of the European Neighborhood Policy countries, along with Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority, Syria and Tunisia. Because the ENP does not open any doors to EU accession, Ukraine has taken a vociferous position in its relation with the EU. Namely, it advocates for a differentiation of the EU approach towards certain ENP countries who have legitimate and clear European integration aspirations, including Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia and Moldova - all former Soviet republics. Ukraine made this position very clear at the first ENP conference Working Together: Strengthening the ENP held in Brussels on 3 September, 2007.

Why is Ukraine's emerging role as regional ENP leader important for Moldova? First, Ukraine is a big country (47 million people) rich in natural resources, which gives it significant negotiation clout. Secondly, Ukraine is perceived as advancing better and faster on EU-driven reform paths. Thirdly, Ukraine has a politically-active citizenry, being a country where the Orange Revolution took place. All these factors allow Ukraine to strengthen its position as a regional ENP leader, and eventually persuade the EU that several countries deserve to be considered for membership. Needless to say, this opens a window of opportunity for the 3.5-million country stretching in between. Although, until recently, the Moldovan Government tried to talk the EU into considering Moldova as an accession candidate along with the Western Balkan states (unfortunately, without any success), it is important that the Government take serious measures not to miss this emerging opportunity, and cooperate closely with Ukraine in sharing and advocating this new position in its relations with EU.

European Union is on Guard, and Moldova Should Be, Too

The EU Observer published an interesting article on Moldova's role in the EU-Russia tensions. EU special envoy to Moldova, Kalman Mizsei, thinks that there are two scenarios for solving the Transnistrian problem: positive and negative - both with high stakes for EU and Russia. This means that EU keeps a strict eye on what's going on in Moldova in terms of Transnistrian conflict resolution, and will criticize, if not punish, any deviations from the "5+2" format of negotiations.

Today, an important event is taking place in Vienna: “Extraordinary Conference of the States Parties to the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe” (CFE), which was convened in short notice by Moscow. This event might have interesting outcomes, including for Moldova, about which Vladimir Socor writes in this article. There are 3 main groups of players. Russia is trying to persuade US and EU to waive the Istanbul convention requirement to withdraw its troops from the conflict zones (in Moldova and Georgia): Through shrill rhetoric and a little German help, Moscow hopes to break the Western policy of linking ratification of the adapted CFE Treaty with Russia’s fulfillment of the Istanbul Commitments, primarily on Moldova.

The NATO allies' proposal is "to accept a small number of Russian troops remaining in Moldova as part of an internationalized peacekeeping operation for a limited period of time. Russia would evacuate or scrap its ammunition stockpiles as well as withdrawing part of its troops. The internationalized operation would be a military one, though potentially reformable into an operation with greater civilian content later on."

And, finally, the official Moldovan delegation, in addition to internationalization, is to advance the idea of “civilianization” of the peacekeeping operation, which implies "turning the Russian military operation into an international mission of civilian and military observers, with some small military backup, under an international mandate."

The event will last until 15th of June, and the actual outcomes would be of great interest.

Later addition: "Moldova is key to this whole dispute between Russia and NATO," says an alliance diplomat. "If we can resolve the Moldova issue, the rest could fall into place." More on this issue here

Moldova and European Union: What Next?

Since the first day of 2007, Moldova has become one of European Union’s neighbors. Moldova’s hopes related to EU integration are pretty clear and well-known, and its Government is actively pursuing a dialogue with the European Commission, the ultimate objective of which is an EU Association Agreement. However, this objective is yet far from becoming a reality. Today, negotiations between EU and Moldova are focused around two important agreements: Visa Regime Facilitation and Readmission Agreements. Here is a very good article by Gheorghe Stamate about the meaning and significance of these agreements, as well as positive and negative implications for Moldova.

Moldova's Future Remains Uncertain

Listening to various opinions about the same event/ situation might bring you closer to the truth. The report published by the International Crisis Group (ICG) "Moldova's Uncertain Future" http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4340&f=1 contains an interesting analysis of recent initiatives to approach several Transnistrian-related problems. One is the EU Border Assistance Mission (EUBAM) launched in late 2005 to help curb smuggling along the Transnistrian segment of the Moldova-Ukraine frontier. Another one is Kiev’s implementation of a landmark customs regime to assist Moldova in regulating Transnistrian exports to reduce the ability of Transnistrian businesses to operate without Moldovan oversight.

The report finds that these measures have not forced Transnistria to make diplomatic concessions, as anticipated. ICG thinks that now "the best chance for moving toward a sustainable settlement is to convince the Transdniestrian business community that cooperating with Moldova is in its own interests. There is evidence that some business leaders are growing frustrated with Smirnov and may be willing to work with Chisinau."

New Foreign Policy for Moldova

I ran across a very interesting article about Moldovan foreign policy, particularly concerning the relationship with Russia. The author, Igor Botan, executive director of Association for Participatory Democracy “ADEPT”, attempts to explain why the Moldovan Parliament postponed adoption of the recently reviewed national security and foreign policies, in the context of Russia’s recent political and economic pressures on Moldova. I’d recommend reading the entire article (http://www.e-democracy.md/comments/political/200607312/), but I will briefly present the major ideas.

The Moldovan legislature chose to wait and see “how things go.” This, however, does not translate into an abandonment of its commitments vis-à-vis EU. Neither does the Moldovan President’s attendance of the informal CIS summit that took place in Moscow on 21-22 July. According to Botan, this politically-significant behavior has more to do with keeping a specific segment of the Communist Party’s electorate “happy” concerning Moldovan relationship with Russia. In reality, though, this relationship has been seriously and irreparably damaged. It has been proved that "friendship" with Russia implies very high costs for small countries like Moldova. This problem opens a set of opportunities for Moldova. They should determine its foreign policy according to the following scenario. In the short run, the priority should be successful implementation of the EU-Moldova Action Plan. In the medium run, Moldova should strive to join Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA), and in the long term, the priority should be joining EU together with the West Balkan countries.

To me, this sounds like a great plan! What do you think?

Moldova is Coming Closer to EU: Is It For Real?!

On February 22, 2005, the Moldovan Government signed the EU-Moldova Action Plan (AP), and commited to implement all its provisions in three years. The AP, along with the Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EGPRS), has become a major instrument which governs various types of reforms in the political, social and economic life in Moldova.

To my delight, my own observations allow me to conclude that these two documentents are more than wasted paper. On one hand, implementation of EGPRS is expected to bring Moldova out of poverty by stimulating economic activity. On the other hand, implementation of the AP is intended to bring Moldovan institutions, legislation and the entire society closer to European values, practices and markets. Obviously, there is a loooong way until these objectives are achieved, but as the saying goes, the intention is what really counts.

It's been a pleasant surprise for me to witness that the central government is indeed set on achieving the goals stipulated in these two strategic documents. This is the right starting point. It will take some time until all public officials and employees begin taking this process seriously, but given the unyielding pressure from European Commission and Council of Europe, the bureaucratic cart will ultimately move in the right direction. This, in of itself, is very good news. At least for optimistic people like me.